Sunday, February 19, 2006
upping the ante against venezuela
In spite of the idiocy that sometimes pours out of their mouths I don't believe that the people governing the US say much by accident. That is to say that when Rumsfeld compared Chavez to Hitler earlier this month it was not simply the man being an idiot. World War 2 represents the ultimate legitimate war in the American memory. At the time of Vietnam policy makers invoked that war to rationalise their action. Comparing Chavez to Hitler was a mechanism for making him and his regime into a legitimate target for intevention. On Friday Rice said Chavez was leading countries away from democracy, referred to him a regional danger, called for a united front against him and stated that "The international community has just got to be much more active in supporting and defending the Venezuelan people,". Of course this is not the first time that the USA has attacked chavez. The point is that US commentary is more and more implying that practical action against Venezuela would be desirable.
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In my view military action against Venezuela (or Iran for that matter) is very very unlikely in the foreseeable future. Quite apart from the over commitment of the US military to Iraq and Afghanistan (and Korea), there is no sign so far that the USA is intending to impose economic sanctions on Venezuela - and they do not classify it as a country "supporting terrorism", which has economic consequences for export and import.
However, by talking up the possibility - without actualy doing anything about it - the USA are indulging in a form of destabiisation of the revolution.
It will cause Venezuella to divert more resources to the military away from social reform, and also puts pressure on Chavez to crack down on pro-US dissent at home, thus making Venezuela less democratic, which is a slow acting poison.
It also strengthens the hand of the most moderate supporters of Chavez to play safe and not rock the boat.
Particlarly because chavez has to maintain good relations with those capitalist states who may supply him with arms - such as the fighter plane deal with Spain, which in turn is a constraint on how much Venezuela is prepared to act against multi-nationals.
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